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    2. 70. Jahrestagung der Deutschen Gesellschaft für Medizinische Informatik, Biometrie und Epidemiologie e.V.
    3. Developing a rule for the antibiotics treatment of moderate pneumonia with fluoroquinolones or beta-lactams based on data of an observational study
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70. Jahrestagung der Deutschen Gesellschaft für Medizinische Informatik, Biometrie und Epidemiologie e.V.

Deutsche Gesellschaft für Medizinische Informatik, Biometrie und Epidemiologie e.V. (GMDS)
07.-11.09.2025
Jena

Meeting Abstract

Developing a rule for the antibiotics treatment of moderate pneumonia with fluoroquinolones or beta-lactams based on data of an observational study

Marcus Oswald - Universitätsklinikum Jena, Jena, Germany
Mathias Pletz - Institute for Infectious Diseases and Infection Control, Jena University Hospital, Jena, Germany
Rainer König - Universitätsklinikum Jena, Jena, Germany

Text

Introduction: Selecting the appropriate antibiotics treatment against moderate pneumonia is still a matter of debate. To develop a treatment rule for the decision of a beta-lactam or a fluoroquinolone antibiotic, we develop machine learning (ML) methods based on scoring models, trained on ex ante available etiological and clinical parameters. For propensity balancing, we compute an expected mortality for each patient by logistic regression and take the difference to the real mortality (90 days).

Methods: We consider seasonal effects and display time-lapse characteristics of more than 10,000 hospitalised patients with moderate severity (non-intensive care unit patients) from the observational, prospective, multinational CAPNETZ study [1]. Incidence data of Influenza infection is derived from publicly available data of the Robert Koch Institute (https://survstat.rki.de/). During the years more and more numbers of cases are reported. This is corrected by computing the linear regression slope of the logarithm of the case numbers and subtracting it from the data. Now the Influenza seasons of all years are comparable. In addition we construct daily case numbers from the weekly published RKI data by interpolation.

Results: We observe seasonal effects linked to seasonal Influenza incidences. We observe an increasing severity during and directly after the Influenza peaks, and, at the same periods, rather low mortality of patients treated with fluoroquinolones.

Conclusion: The seasonal effects on Fluorquinolone treatment are interesting and need elaboration on explaining these effects.

Members of the CAPNETZ study group are: M. Dreher, C. Cornelissen (Aachen); W. Knüppel (Bad Arolsen); D. Stolz (Basel); N. Suttorp, M. Witzenrath, P. Creutz, A. Mikolajewska (Berlin, Charité); T. Bauer, D. Krieger (Berlin); W. Pankow, D. Thiemig (Berlin-Neukölln); B. Hauptmeier, S. Ewig, D. Wehde (Bochum); M. Prediger, S. Schmager (Cottbus); M. Kolditz, B. Schulte-Hubbert, S. Langner (Dresden); W. Albrich (St Gallen); T. Welte, J. Freise, G. Barten, O. Arenas Toro, M. Nawrocki, J. Naim, M. Witte, W. Kröner, T. Illig, N. Klopp (Hannover); M. Kreuter, F. Herth, S. Hummler (Heidelberg); P. Ravn, A. Vestergaard-Jensen, G. Baunbaek-Knudsen (Hillerød); M. Pletz, C. Kroegel, J. Frosinski, J. Winning, B. Schleenvoigt ( Jena); K. Dalhoff, J. Rupp, R. Hörster, D. Drömann (Lübeck); G. Rohde, J. Drijkoningen, D. Braeken (Maastricht); H. Buschmann (Paderborn); T. Schaberg, I. Hering (Rotenburg/Wümme); M. Panning (Freiburg); M. Wallner (Ulm).

The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

The authors declare that an ethics committee vote is not required.

References

[1] Suttorp N, Welte T, Marre R, Stenger S, Pletz M, Rupp J, et al. Das Kompetenzzentrum für ambulant erworbene Pneumonie [CAPNETZ. The competence network for community-acquired pneumonia (CAP)]. Bundesgesundheitsblatt Gesundheitsforschung Gesundheitsschutz. 2016;59(4):475-81.