26kgg332 10.3205/26kgg332 urn:nbn:de:0183-26kgg3324 Meeting Abstract Koch Koch Lennart L

UMIT TIROL – University for Health Sciences and Technology, Department of Public Health, Health Services Research, and Health Technology Assessment, Österreich

author Hallsson Hallsson Lára Run LR

UMIT TIROL – University for Health Sciences and Technology, Department of Public Health, Health Services Research, and Health Technology Assessment, Österreich

author Stratil Stratil Jan J

UMIT TIROL – University for Health Sciences and Technology, Department of Public Health, Health Services Research, and Health Technology Assessment, Österreich

author Kuria Kuria Joyce J

UMIT TIROL – University for Health Sciences and Technology, Department of Public Health, Health Services Research, and Health Technology Assessment, Österreich

author Durstmüller Durstmüller Felix F

Gesundheit Österreich GmbH, Competence Center Climate and Health, Österreich

author de'Donato de'Donato Francesca F

ASL ROMA 1, Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Italien

author Tonne Tonne Cathryn C

Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Barcelona, Spanien Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Spanien CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Spanien

author Siebert Siebert Uwe U

Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Department of Epidemiology, USA Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Center for Health Decision Science, Health Policy & Management, USA Harvard Medical School, Institute for Technology Assessment and Department of Radiology, Massachusetts General Hospital, USA

author Brugger Brugger Katharina K

Gesundheit Österreich GmbH, Competence Center Climate and Health, Österreich

author Sroczynski Sroczynski Gaby G

UMIT TIROL – University for Health Sciences and Technology, Department of Public Health, Health Services Research, and Health Technology Assessment, Österreich

author German Medical Science GMS Publishing House

Düsseldorf

610 20251030 engl This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. Dieser Artikel ist ein Open-Access-Artikel und steht unter den Lizenzbedingungen der Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License (Namensnennung). M0662 332 Deutsche Gesellschaft für Allgemeinmedizin und Familienmedizin Deutsche Gesellschaft für Sozialmedizin und Prävention Netzwerk Evidenzbasierte Medizin e.V. Deutsche Gesellschaft für Medizinische Soziologie 60. Kongress für Allgemeinmedizin und Familienmedizin Gesundheit gestalten Analoge Posterpräsentation 2: Klima & Gesundheit Göttingen 20260930 20261002 PA-02-10 EU TextBackground: Rising temperatures and frequent heatwaves lead to substantial health burden, particularly among older adults. Simultaneously, various heat adaptation strategies are in development, but empirical studies are lacking and limited to evaluate long-term effects.Aim/scientific question: What is the long-term effectiveness of a range of fictional heat adaptation strategies for older adults as of age 65?Material & Methods: We developed a decision-analytic Markov state transition model capturing hospitalizations as well as heat- and non-heat related mortality. National model input parameters include temperature-mortality exposure-response curves (ERCs), temperature data, hospitalization data, and mortality data. We assumed effects of fictional adaptation strategies by changing temperature-mortality ERCs. These changes were realized by defining the temperature threshold for activation of an adaptation strategy (25, 26, 27, 28, 29°C), and the relative reduction of the curve (0.95, 0.90, 0.85, 0.80, 0.70). Outcomes include heat-related deaths (HRD) and life-years gained (LYG) per 10,000 people aged 65. Analyses were conducted over a lifetime horizon. Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess robustness.Results: Model validation included comparing observed remaining life expectancy at age 65 (20.192 years) with the modeled value (20.190 years). Based on preliminary results, evaluated strategies prevented 2 to 27 HRD/10,000 people aged 65 and produced 9 to 214 LYG/10,000 people aged 65.Discussion: This modeling study provides the first systematic long-term evaluation of fictional heat adaptation strategies with a range of assumed effects in older adults. By exploring this spectrum of potential long‑term outcomes, future heat adaptation strategies–once their effects have been empirically evaluated–can be positioned within this range, enabling an informed estimation of their long‑term impact. The findings support evidence-informed decisions on the implementation of interventions.Take Home Message: Heat adaptation measures can reduce heat-related deaths. Long-term effectiveness evaluation supports health systems in prioritizing strategies.Competing interests: The authors declare no conflicts of interest. This work was partially funded by the European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation program under Grant Agreement No. 101057131, Climate Action To Advance HeaLthY Societies in Europe (CATALYSE). 0 0 0 0